Craig Sherman of Gaia Online: WoW is "not a success"
by Mike Schramm 
Apr 10th 2008 at 5:30PM
See if you can follow this reasoning: WoW has ten million players, which is nice and all, but there are actually 800 million teens in the world. Therefore, since Blizzard hasn't reached even 10% of them (80 million), WoW is not actually a success. That's what Craig Sherman of Gaia Online (a casual, browser-based MMO) said to folks at the M16 Marketing conference in San Francisco this week. He claims that WoW's subscription fee has hampered its growth, and that it would be even bigger if there was a free-to-play model.But his reasoning is unstable there to say the least. Part of the reason WoW is so successful is that Blizzard has had the cash to put up for new servers, new content, and a brand new HQ, and with a free-to-play model, they wouldn't be making nearly as much money as they are. Not to mention the quality of the players -- in my experience, part of the reason WoW is such a good game is that when people pay to play it, you often get a much more interested and involved player base. And of course, while yes, WoW hasn't reached a larger fraction of its "potential" player base (however you define that -- what makes Sherman think that Blizzard is targeting teens at all?), anyone who thinks a 10 million player MMO is "not a success" needs to examine the rest of the MMO market more closely.
Will there be a game bigger than World of Warcraft? It sure seems like it -- at some point in the future, there should be a game that does go free to play and does hit on all the marks -- casual, hardcore, serious, fun -- that World of Warcraft does (in fact, maybe WoW itself will someday open up a free-to-play model). But to claim that WoW has somehow suffered from its subscription model is pretty far from the truth.
[Via Worldofwar.net]
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Odds and ends, Blizzard
Reader Comments (Page 3 of 6)
Gamerdad Apr 10th 2008 6:08PM
Hell sometimes I wish Blizz charged MORE money to keep the younger immature crowd out of the picture. Although sometimes I'm sure there's even a balding 35 year old behind that annoying loud mouth player you think is a teen.
Dree Apr 10th 2008 6:09PM
What is this guy's position at Gaia? Being an avid player of both sites, I think he's obviously missing the point that the demographic isn't entirely teens. It's quite disappointing.
Milktub Apr 10th 2008 6:09PM
I'm just plain confused. WoW is not a success, yet the official WoW website has had more than twice the hits as Gaiaonline since 3rd quarter 2004. In fact, WOWInsider has had more hits than Sherman's last project (myfamily.com) since mid 2007.
So let's look at context.
Sherman was speaking at a Marketing Convention. He was speaking at the second discussion of the conference, when most conference goers are having breakfast and sleeping off hangovers. Conference organizers never schedule important talks at 10am. The roundtable discussion he was participating in was between four online portal developers, focused on talking about why free-for-play, advertising supported gaming was the next big thing.
With that context in mind, his remarks make complete sense. When you come to a conference that is focused on how to use video games as an advertising product, you're going to tell those there to see you that advertising within video games has a viable future, and it's because the current competition is a failure.
Badger Apr 11th 2008 2:13PM
Thanks, Tub. The comments makes a little more sense now that we have some context (since, again, no linky above).
Jamie Apr 10th 2008 6:10PM
800 million teens in the world does not equal 800 million people who play videogames. At all.
Big Dog Apr 10th 2008 6:19PM
how many of these 800 millions teens have ever touched a computer in their lifes?
he's just stupid.
hellshire Apr 10th 2008 6:14PM
The free MMO system is nothing more then a bait and switch system anyways. They give you, at best, half a game and then nickel and dime you for the rest. Want to upgrade your weapon? Cash item for that. Hit up the latest dungeon? The key is a cash item. Use all your bank slots? You best be getting your wallet out.
Usually what you find is that the games supposed population (perpetuated by the company running the game) is nothing but fools gold. The player base turnover is simply retarded and of those who do stay to play, you'll be lucky if more then 1/5th of them ever shell out any money.
Suzaku Apr 10th 2008 6:28PM
Hmm, I just checked, and Gaia Online only has some 2.5 million active users. And it's free.
Also... they named their alien avatar species... "zurg"?
Sounds like someone's a bit jealous of Blizzard.
Oldbear Apr 10th 2008 7:23PM
Sounds like it might be time for Pizar's lawyer to visit someone... "zurg:Evil Emperor Zurg, Sworn Enemy of the Galactic Alliance"
Rob Wynne Apr 10th 2008 6:16PM
Two things:
1) Is "teens" really the target audience we want to go for? Really truely? WTB more mature players, kthxbye.
2) Guild Wars tried the free-to-play model. How's that working out? Last I looked, they had a *fraction* of WoW's playerbase.
Good grief.
p-diddy Apr 11th 2008 7:19AM
Sorry, have to jump in here. GW doesn't have a free-to-play model. They have a pay-$40-for-a-box-only-once model. And they've managed to sell 5 million of those boxes.
http://www.joystiq.com/2008/02/26/guild-wars-franchise-hits-5-million-unit-sold-mark/
I'm not so brash to say that's half the player base of WoW; it isn't. I've bought all the expansions for GW so I alone represent 4 of those boxes, but not everyone has. While even 1/4 of 10 million is a "fraction," let's not lump Guild Wars into the free-to-play-but-with-microtransactions model
Rob Wynne Apr 11th 2008 7:31AM
I didn't mean that to be critical of GW. It was just an observation that subscription-based pricing is not a magical guarentee of success. Sure, they've sold 5 million boxes, but not all the people who bought those boxes is still playing. A lot of people will have gotten tired and moved on to the next thing.
While I never played GW, I had friends who did, and I must admit it looked like a fun game. The *quality* of GWI wasn't really my point, nor was I lumping it in with whatever silly notion Sherman had about micropayments, . I was just holding it up as a contrast to WoW's more traditional subscription model to illustrate that "no subscription" doesn't magically translate into "more players".
Wikt Apr 10th 2008 6:19PM
On top of being in the team of Gaia Online, he dares base his judgement of "success" on such a silly definition.
Somewhat sad.
Biff Apr 10th 2008 6:19PM
Just sounds like a struggling man trying to desperately defend his business model.
Is success judged by how much of the population you have playing, or by how much income your company makes?
If I made a game that targets, specifically, one-eyed mute eight fingered midget eunuchs, and, by golly, all five of them in the world played, would my company be a success?
Kaljin Apr 10th 2008 6:22PM
What a fool. Micro transactions and F2P models are not the way to go for MMOs at the moment. He has no clue what he is talking.
Zach Apr 11th 2008 12:11AM
Not for all markets, no. But FTP models are viable in many parts of the world.
Tyranor Apr 10th 2008 6:22PM
Well...where I can see where he's coming from, I also think he's not approaching it from the same standpoint as Vivendi/Blizz. He's definitely right: in terms of shear numbers, Gaia Online does have more "subscribers" than WoW. Then again, so does Second Life. Solitaire has more players than Half Life 2. More people have Fiat Puntos than BMWs. Does that make any a success or a failure? Frankly, I'm not really sure. If your aim is to impact as large a fraction of the population, maybe, but even then, have more people heard of Gaia Online or WoW?
Gaia Online's entire business model is based on selling in game contracts to RL companies, and yes, maybe that would boost WoW's income. Frankly, I think a 92 man company claiming to more knowledge than Vivendi sounds somewhat arrogant, but more relevantly, I don't think he really understands the point of WoW.
In WoW, Blizzard has created a masterpiece. Gaia is a cash cow: a well designed, pretty cash cow, but a cash cow none the less. When Thrall start's promoting Diet Coke and epics, like items in Gaia Online, are attained simply by browsing the WoW forums, then we can establish a fair comparison. Until then, I'm going to trust that Vivendi knows how to make cash.
Hurode Apr 25th 2008 5:26PM
Whoa dude, put some paragraph breaks in there. No one likes reading text walls.
Alchemistmerlin Apr 10th 2008 6:24PM
People have covered most of the points I was going to make, so instead I'll just say: Can you change the picture? That is an extremely ugly man, and I'm eating.
Kidding.
Sort of.
Jon B Apr 10th 2008 6:26PM
I heard Richard Garriott gave Craig Sherman a high-five after he made these comments.
My real problem with all of this is that the criticism of WoW being unsuccessful is coming from the guy who runs GAIA ONLINE...