Massively and GamerDNA chart the MMO market in 2008
In (very) short, WoW rules. Two games that most pundits thought might affect WoW playtime, Warhammer Online and Age of Conan, in fact, didn't affect WoW logons in the least, according to this data. And while guest contributor (and GamerDNA writer/analyst) Sanya Weathers says she may have spotted a short decline in WoW playtime right around the release of WAR, that was quickly overshot by the release of Wrath, as WoW's numbers jumped right back up.
But while Blizzard has weathered the competition this year, things might not be so hunky dory for them in the future: while games like Lord of the Rings Online and EVE Online are showing sharper increases, WoW's population seems to be leveling out. It's still growing, sure, but not at the rate that it has been (and perhaps at the slowest rate in the game's life). And you have to think, as we said on the podcast last week, that whatever other expansions Blizzard can come up with, none will be as interesting to their players as finishing off the story of Arthas Menethil and the Lich King. WoW is still the undisputed king of MMOs, but the stats say we're closer to the end of its reign than the beginning.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Odds and ends, Blizzard, Economy, Making money, Wrath of the Lich King
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Lyraat Dec 30th 2008 1:11PM
Slower growth is still growth. Our player base may not be increasing as fast as LotRO or Warhammer, but it still is increasing. WoW will be the biggest and best for a long time to come.
Amaxe Dec 30th 2008 10:45PM
Yes, but slower growth can be a sign of levelling off. Something Blizzard would not want. I doubt they are in danger though
An interesting chart. AoC and WAR were billed as the games that would outdo WoW, and the reviews at the times seem to indicate it could not deliver.
Of course I'd like to see the charts for how WoW did in the early days compared to EQ and others. Did it stumble then? or was it still strong then?
The long run is what will matter. When everyone hits 80, will WoW content be fresh still or will we all be bored with it?
That's when we may see some shifting
Will Dec 30th 2008 1:12PM
A game called Darkfall that is set to start beta soon and has been in
the works for a few years already could be the next potential competitor for blizzard.
Darkfall has some unique game mechanics to brign to the table and it's very pvp oriented, similar to shadowbane.
I believe DF will take away some of WoW's hardcore pvpers. Other
than that it's tough to step up to the great foundation blizzard has
set up with WoW through trial and error and listening to the
community to make the game more enjoyable...and addictive.
http://www.wowconfidential.com
Rich Dec 30th 2008 1:48PM
Darkfall is a niche game. It will take some of the hardcore PvP'ers away, but it won't make a dent at all in the long run.
slimj091 Dec 30th 2008 11:11PM
"A game called Darkfall that is set to start beta soon and has been in
the works for a few years already could be the next potential competitor for blizzard."
just about every MMO that has been released or has been in development/beta testing in the past three years has been labeled "a potential competitor for blizzard".
lets get real here people.. the MMO market is the special olympics, and blizzard is johnny knoxville running over kids to get another gold medal.
it's pretty safe to say that until blizzard closes down the servers no MMO will come close to reaching the total and concurrent subscriber number's blizzard has with WoW. of course that will also be the day when they release World of Warcraft 2.
so all of this "this next (insert name of game in beta testing here) game might take the stuffing out of blizzard" can stop... please. for the sake of everyone's eyes.
Celton Dec 30th 2008 1:13PM
I disagree. I think they can keep their plateau and even slight growth for a very long time. So far each expansion has been leagues better than the last and I don't see that changing in the future either. The only thing that could cause a decline in WOW in the relatively near future is another MMO by Blizzard.
infection Dec 30th 2008 4:17PM
"So far each expansion has been leagues better than the last and I don't see that changing in the future either."
And I'll disagree with you on this one.
I don't feel that wrath is "leagues" better than BC.
I can still remember when BC came out. Had the rep system added, another class added, flying mounts. What do you think is a huge update in wrath? We have the rep system (tweaked, but still the same concept), a new class, and flying mounts which was continued from BC.
Wrath has just been a tweaked version of BC expansion. All I've seen added is vehicles that carry people and achievements (which 99% of them get you absolutely nothing). Nothing about wrath has been ground breaking and new. To say it is "leagues" ahead of other expansions is a huge opinion, and no where near the truth. Unless you call achievements and some class changes "leagues ahead".
I have at least 3 people that played as much as me if not more that are 80 now and barely play. We've seen all the content and now its just back to the grind of gear and nothing new besides wintersgrasp (which is every 3 hours and you usually end up missing it or its completely lop sided with the amount of people that show up) . And we had wintersgrasp in BC, just not dedicated to one zone. There was halaa and terakar forrest along with hellfire pvp objectives that people loved.
I still don't understand why they can make an interactive changing map (when wintersgrasp is under attack or a faction controls it) but can't post on the map when the next battle is. You have to make a trip to dalaran or to wg just to find out.
I'm not trying to down the game, but to say "leagues" ahead of another expansion is pretty insane.
It would be pretty hard to top the BC release. Like I stated earlier: Had the rep system introduced, another class added, flying mounts, faction against faction objectives in lands every so often, raid changed from 40 to 25. That was the epic release.
Elridan Dec 30th 2008 5:09PM
@ infection
Aren't you forgetting something? How about the continuation and hopefully after a few major patches the ending of the story of Arthas and the Lich King? That's kind of a big thing, at least for people who pay attention to the story and enjoy the lore.
Realistically the story for BC wasn't even really a HUGE part of the original lore of Azeroth-it was something extra added to give people a reason (in the story) to goto Outlands, and even then they screwed up some of the original lore (not on purpose, or so I'm told).
Eh? Jan 7th 2009 1:59AM
@infection
The 'rep system' was introduced in vanilla wow with the Thorium Brotherhood, Cenarion Circle, and the Timbermaw Furbolgs. BC just expanded on it.
As for being leaps and bounds ahead of previous (BC or vanilla) I would say that, yes, this expansion is definately leaps and bounds over what has come before. You don't HAVE to dream up something absolutely brand new for dreaming something absolutely brand new' sake.
This expansion shines because it's lore and experience are a much more cohesive and engaging execution than BC or Vanilla ever were. The zones have a lot of detail and it's obvious that a lot of planning and effort went into them. The rep systems and mechanics are much more polished and the improvement shows.
I will agree that this hasn't been a revolutionary expansion, it HAS been an evolutionary expansion, and sometimes, that's the best way to go.
Tenchan Dec 30th 2008 1:16PM
A game not rising like a comet anymore =/= a game's 'reign' ending
Those curves look exactly like I expected (though the plunge in War's subscriptions is a bit steeper than I thought it would be).
(And as someone who had highest hopes for AoC, that curve is somewhat painful to look at.)
Mark Jan 7th 2009 11:37AM
@7 - I completely disagree. I don't know about the PVP end of it but for PVE, I think Wrath is lightyears ahead of BC which was far superior to classic. I think what will keep Blizzard (and Wow) going for a long time is their experience in balancing what makes it fun and challenging. Each one gets much better and there is no reason to doubt that the next expansion - whatever the storyline - will be more fun that Wrath.
Agathon Dec 30th 2008 1:21PM
I would love to see how the Emerald Dream plays out online.
andyjay220 Dec 30th 2008 1:25PM
Yes, while the Arthas story line is likely a favorite, Blizzard is far from running out of excellent lore to explore.
And if Wrath is any indication, I expect them to continually improve on their past successes.
InsaneAssault Dec 30th 2008 2:03PM
I disagree. Arthas/Northrend was the last major story arc that originated in War 3. The next biggest thing would be the Emerald Dream and I don't believe that will be anywhere as big as the Arthas/Northrend angle.
Of course, Blizz could always start making up lore, but it will be nowhere as popular as the stuff that was set pre-WoW. At the very least it will cause lore nerds (like me) to go WTF (ie: Draenei) or just seem boring (ie: AQ)
Zarfay Dec 30th 2008 6:54PM
@ InsaneAssault
It's possible Blizzard will release WC4 in the future which could add to the lore and give way for a new expansion.
Alot of people would disagree, however you have to admit with the changes in technology since WC3 and the advancements Blizzard has made as a whole would make it a pretty epic game.
jrizutko Dec 30th 2008 1:26PM
I think that Blizzard will certainly plateau in the next couple of years, but they won't start a real decline until Blizzard's own next gen MMO hits beta. Blizzards slice of the pie stands to get smaller in proportion, but since the whole pie seems to be getting bigger, that doesn't really mean any loss for them. If anything, Blizzard should be glad other games are expanding the MMO market. When its time to launch a new title, that just means that many more players to entice.
hiphophomies Dec 30th 2008 1:28PM
Agreed about Arthas.
The only thing that would even come close to being as interesting as killing Arthas would be killing Furion.
And they'd have to make up a reason why we'd have to kill Furion.
Sargeras? Boring ass demon, am I right?
Gnosh Dec 30th 2008 1:44PM
Hey, all sales eventually wane. At this point, basically everyone interested in WoW already HAS WoW.
Ahoni Dec 30th 2008 1:45PM
"the stats say we're closer to the end of its reign than the beginning"
There are three types of lies. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. Your own charts (http://www.massively.com/photos/massively-gamerdna-year-in-review/1248245/full/) show WoW as being, at worst, the 2nd fastest growing MMO.
snowleopard233 Dec 30th 2008 2:08PM
These statitsics measure growth by percentage. So let's say there's 12 people playing lotr online and 2 people login; that growth would show up higher than if 1 million people joined WoW's 12million people player base.
That's statistics for ya.