Developer resolution for 2009: Beat Warcraft
Our friends at GameDaily have a nice set of resolutions for game developers next year, and it's definitely worth a read if you're interested in seeing where they think the game industry might improve in 2009. But number three is the most interesting one for us: they suggest that game developers (and MMO devs in specific, we'd imagine) should make this the year that something else beats World of Warcraft.It seems much more unlikely than last year: last year, we were looking down the barrel of Age of Conan and Warhammer Online, and wondering if either one of those might cause a road bump in WoW's traffic. Age of Conan was called the steak to our game's McDonald's, but in the end, WoW players didn't do much more than give it a cursory glance. And while Warhammer seemed like a good contender to the throne, it hasn't come close to taking a bite out of Azeroth. This year, it doesn't even seem like there will be any MMO contenders. GameDaily cites Bioware's Star Wars MMO, but that's not coming out in 2009, and while The Agency and DC Universe Online might be getting close to finished, it's unlikely we'll see them on the shelves this year either.
This might be a year of recuperation, for both Blizzard and their competitors. Lord of the Rings Online is doing well, so their big task is just to keep the content moving, and unlike last year, Blizzard has no real impetus this year to really push their playerbase to stick with the game. As with everything, we'll have to see what happens, but I'd expect a much more subdued year this go-around for the MMO market. When the MMOs in progress now come to fruition in 2010, then things will likely get more interesting.
Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Odds and ends, Blizzard, Making money
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 3)
Marco Jan 6th 2009 4:14PM
What about the new dragonball MMO that is coming out in the East(Japan/China/Korea etc) and the US. The game is different than the normal MMO and has a gigantic fan base.
arycogre Jan 6th 2009 4:15PM
Of course there is that Stargate MMO that is "supposedly" coming out this year. Though I doubt it will put any dent in WoW, if it even manages to get released.
Naix Jan 6th 2009 4:18PM
I have a theory of what may come to pass from this great game called World of Warcraft. There will be expansion. There will be no new content once wrath has been finished with the defeat, many many times, of Arthus. World of Warcraft will come to a close. Come soon after Blizzard announces a new MMO. The MMO they have been working on secretly for the last 2+ years. An MMO that has been whispered at Blizzard events and talked about at secret midnight meetings. Blizzard will finalize World of Warcraft and bring into its place an MMO that will truly strike the finial blow to Aurthus.
This new game will be the death of one successful MMO and birth cry of a whole new MMO.
bob Jan 6th 2009 4:23PM
Blizzard has stated that they are already working on the next WoW expansion.
Naix Jan 6th 2009 4:30PM
"next WoW expansion"
By that they mean new MMO.
Niomi Jan 12th 2009 10:04AM
I've seen all these things confirmed by Blizzard at some point on this blog... so unless they change their mind, you will be completely wrong.
-Blizzard is currently developing a new MMO-- no details given, other than that it will be "next gen".
-Blizzard is currently working on an expansion to WoW.
-Blizzard will not make a WoW 2.
T Jan 6th 2009 5:02PM
Blizzard has stated that they will continue to support WoW in the future. New expansions, etc. Any second MMO they release will be supported along-side WoW for the forseeable future.
havitech Jan 6th 2009 5:41PM
Blizzard saying they'll support both WoW and their new MMO brings to mind when Nintendo said they would support both the Gameboy Advance and DS. But, if their new MMO is as superior to WoW as the DS was to the Gameboy, then we don't have anything to worry about.
Kia Jan 6th 2009 6:20PM
"By that they mean new MMO."
Yeah, you keep telling yourself that. Between the Maelstrom, the Emerald Dream, the Burning Citadel, etc, WoW is nowhere remotely near dead.
But, y'know, whatever helps you sleep at night.
The Claw Jan 6th 2009 10:50PM
I hope I work with Naix someday. I want to be there when he approaches our boss with an idea as high-quality as taking an MMO which is bringing in a billion dollars a year, and more successful than anything else in the history of the industry - and abandoning it to solely focus on something new.
bob Jan 6th 2009 4:21PM
If AoC and Warhammer coming out in the same year didn't even make a dent in WoW... what does anyone seriously think is going to happen in 2009 to 'beat' WoW.
Tenchan Jan 6th 2009 4:22PM
.... Aion.
bob Jan 6th 2009 4:37PM
Wow. Hadn't heard of that. Another generic fantasy universe.
At least you'll be able to fly.
And with NCsoft behind it you just know its going to be really successful.
Sylvok Jan 7th 2009 11:33AM
If I can remember correctly Aion has around 500k subscribers in just Korea alone so far. Thats basicly 2 months after its release, I dont think it will over come WoW but if NCsoft can stop being...well NCsoft then it might have a shot at becoming a couple million players strong.
Let me repeat that, this game has 500k active subscribers (People who log in the day of polling) in just netcafes, so that doesn't even count people who play at home.
Source: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&u=http://www.gametrics.com/&sl=ko&tl=en
Clasifyd Jan 6th 2009 4:23PM
Warcraft is the only game I know where quitters actually win.
darren Jan 6th 2009 4:25PM
QFT . . . now if only *I* could win and spend some time with those other great games that came out in 2008.
Hefren Jan 6th 2009 4:28PM
You know, I've been a longtime WoW player. I've played Everquest 2, LOTRO, and Warhammer during that time. All those games seem pretty well done and I had fun with them, but I would never re-up my subscription.
One thing in common with the competitors is that their animation styles all seem the same. I hear WoW's graphics referenced as "cartoony" but really its still the only different look and feel out there (that I've played). Also, whenever a new game has some really good innovations, WoW eventually adopts them. LOTRO's achievement system comes to mind for example.
Accessability is still also huge. My computer, which was close to top of the line when I built it a little while before WoW's release is a little long in the tooth now. However even with the graphics updates of the two expansions, it still runs great. The other three I mentioned all had some problems. Everquest 2 was patched and runs great now (when I check it out when they give me free gametime and expansions). Overall it's a turnoff to getting my hooked in and away from WoW. Warhammer was horrible graphic wise at launch even on my newer computers. It was a lot of fun besides that but now it's just a memory. It did improve with patches but it's too late now.
I would love to see a true WoW "killer." It would have to be one heck of a game to pull it off though. I really don't see it happening any time soon.
Bigfish Jan 6th 2009 4:35PM
You can't really BEAT WoW. Not in under a year. Aside from a lack of a clear cut victory condition, there's nothing that is building up anticipation to the point of even holding a candle to Warcraft.
Now, if we're talking initial sales, or subscription growth rates, something MIGHT have a chance, but no one is going to surpass 11.5 million subscriptions in the space of 12 months, and honestly, I don't expect it to happen until Diablo 3 or Starcraft 2 come out.
Candina@WH Jan 6th 2009 5:33PM
A reasonable arguement, 'what defines beating WoW?'
I would submit that a WoW killer:
1.) Must, at a minimum follow, preferably exceed, WoWs user base growth. At 6, 12, 18, and 24 months it must have as many or more users as WoW did at the same time.
2.) It must give me a 'this is amazing!' moment. WoW didn't, in the early day (WoW Year 1), but the interface, content and cooperative play eventually won me over. (you know that moment, when instances became MORE FUN than soloing, that moment ;-) ).
3.) It has to slow Blizzards growth, at worst, at best it has to canibalize WoWs player base.
If a game can achieve those goals it is a WoW killer.
The current batch of pretenders will be lucky to still be online at 36 months post launch (except maybe WAR and LOTR).
Especially with the current economic conditions. I expect that peoples purchasing of new games, and especially new games requiring monthly subscriptions, will take a dip in 2009.
Still, I'd rather have WoW than cable, for what it's worth.
sharkeater75 Jan 6th 2009 4:39PM
www.darkfall.com