Breakfast Topic: It's gotta happen sometime
by Mike Schramm 
Mar 20th 2009 at 8:00AM
Whitney over on WoW Ladies LJ has a story that's so improbable it must be true. Not only did her guild pick up an epic on command in Naxxramas, and not only did they pick up two of the exact same epic item in a row, but they actually got three of the exact same item in the same room. As you regular readers know, I'm horrible at math, so I'm not sure how unlikely that is (you'd probably have to figure how much trash you actually kill every Naxx run and combine how likely it is for each of them to drop the item), but I'm guessing very. Still, given that every drop is randomly generated when a mob spawns (in other words, when you walk into an instance), it's still possible. Even a flipped coin can come up heads 100 times in a row.So yes, even though we don't think about it much, it's totally possible to get Mr. Pinchy on the first try, or pick up three epics in three pulls. Ever just been really, really lucky? I've had the opposite happen, too -- I go for an hour without seeing a drop, check all of the databases to make sure I'm in the right place, and then just before I quit, sure enough, whatever I was looking for drops.
Got any stories of the random number generator (RNG) being really random?
Filed under: Items, Analysis / Opinion, Fan stuff, Odds and ends, Blizzard, Breakfast topics
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 9)
Lucas Mar 20th 2009 8:07AM
Headless horsemens mount dropped and we all rolled, I tank rolled 98 so the hunter passed saying no-one can beat that, I rolled 99 and then the healer passed... then the mage rolled 100.... it was a WTF moment that I will never forget xD
Zarfay Mar 20th 2009 9:26AM
I wasn't going for the mount because of the low drop rate but in what was probably my 3rd or 4th run it dropped and everyone rolled need and I won :)
The rogue was angry with me because he had been farming it for 2 weeks and this is the first drop he had seen.
rosencratz Mar 20th 2009 9:44AM
For bother horsemen and the brewfest mounts, myself and a couple of friends managed to form five man groups for 5-10 runs every night, give or take during the events.
Generally we would "pug" from the guild or so to fill 2-3 slots in the group every night, we only needed 2 dps. Dozens of runs and we got 3 rams(I got it for tickets in the previous year) only the randoms got got it, 1 Kodo(i was desperate for) that my friend got and only one horsemen's mount which a random got.
T'was a little disapointing but we resigned ourselves to be happy for the fact the mounts at least went to people in the guild... Possibly we should've setup a temporary mini-dkp system for it but still... i probably won't try again next year sadly, a shame as i really wanted those two mounts in particular, i don't collect ALL mounts and don't have the albino drake despite only being a cash investment away from it.(i have faction reps) So it's a shame the mounts ia ctually DO want are totally unavailable to me the, upcoming frost wyrm is a disapointment too as i don't have time for PvP these days.
That said i've had 3 Mr Pinchies in total,(Though the first one took over 1,200 catches) only needed to kill a couple of dozen oozes for the disgusting pet, only a dozen whelps for the black whelpling,etc. So i do have some luck. (Over a thousand kills for firefly and the red whelpling though and the green ones i'm still counting)
What i miss is farming for something whilst doing something useful, for example, fishing for Mr Pinchy used to net me decent healing and tank food for raiding for the guild, fireflies got me tons of spores and plant parts, etc. Not much like that these days.
hmmm, i've rambled, sorry about that.
jerzz80 Mar 20th 2009 1:36PM
wow...if thats true could be the one i have heard.
Kendras Mar 20th 2009 12:22PM
I ran Headless Horseman around 150 odd times during Hallow's End. (Yes, I marked them down)
It never dropped once.
Mate of mine runs it, he gets it on the third kill.
Eltanos Mar 20th 2009 12:32PM
I won the Horseman mount and the Grand Black War Mammoth the first and only time I saw these both drop, I'm not very lucky with gear rolls but at least I have some luck with mounts. :D
Psionik Mar 20th 2009 3:14PM
I got Mr. Pinchy on the first try.
Ciira Mar 20th 2009 8:10AM
I like to call it the Not-So-Random number generator
Saranthe Mar 20th 2009 8:34AM
You wanna see Not-So-Random? http://img02.picoodle.com/img/img02/3/3/20/midaki/f_WoWScrnShotm_1e99843.jpg
What do I win?
Saranthe Mar 20th 2009 8:36AM
By the way, sorry for the messy UI. I cleaned it up soon after that shot.
nbcaffeine Mar 20th 2009 9:04AM
Post on a non terrible image host, that one exceeded bandwidth
PeeWee Mar 20th 2009 9:09AM
"What do I win?"
A spank on the ass for eceeding the bandwidth? ^^
Elmo Mar 20th 2009 9:53AM
During a SSC run a Healer item dropped.
all the healers didn't want it so it went for off-spec roll, which simply is a /roll (we dont charge DKP for off spec items)
the 2 people who rolled rolled the exact same number 3 times in a row.
I mean like
Roll 1- both roll 79
Roll 2- both roll 43
Roll 3- both roll 51
Roll 4 gave the decision
Kemikalkadet Mar 20th 2009 8:12AM
We've had something similar to OP's story. In the trash room before Heigan i think we've had an epic drop on every 25-man reset. It's started to become known as the free epix room in our guild. Last night we got 2 epics from a single trash pull in that room.
Viper007Bond Mar 20th 2009 8:16AM
Erm, you aren't lucky and it's not just you. That room is well known to usually drop an epic or at least a blue. ;)
Khass Mar 20th 2009 8:21AM
It's been the same with my guild's runs, and several PuGs.
I believe it's just that there are more mobs there than any other room in Naxx, so hence the chance is greater. Or maybe it really is because the bats and fungus beasts or w/e there have a slightly higher chance to drop them.
Aigarius Mar 20th 2009 9:49AM
Try beating 8, count them - 8 drops of [Chestguard of Relentless Storms] in one clear of Hyjal mountain. I kid you not. From there the nickname of Chestgrard of Relentrless Drops was born. Oh and we only had 4 shamans on that run.
Orophen Mar 20th 2009 11:11PM
We were running a ten man Naxx once, and a pal of man was unfortuanate enough to not be there on time and we had to pull in someone else. My buddy is a paladin tank. He was hoping to get a few upgrades, in particular something to replace his green quality bracers.
That run we had three of the random trash plate bracers drop. Every plate wearer in the raid took them. We still keep them just to laugh about it to this day, despite it being a pretty terrible experience (at the time) for my friend.
Idain Mar 20th 2009 11:51AM
On the very first day me and my guild went into TK the shaman healing belt dropped thrice, (and that was only doing the trash to lootreaver), i've seen that belt drop like 2 times in the the year that followed and it was best in slot until SWP so i count myself very lucky :)
WoWie Zowie Mar 20th 2009 8:15AM
i got my T5 shoulders from loot reaver by rolling 100 against a hunter for the token. he rolled 100. then we had a rolloff, he rolled a 98 and i rolled another 100.
i was able to spec arcane because of that.