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For a value that is sampled with an unbiased normally distributed error, ... , leading the following formula for standard error: (¯) = + ...
Definition and basic properties. The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). Effectively, this overcomes the 'infinite error' issue. Its formula is:
Propagation of uncertainty. In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables ' uncertainties (or errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have uncertainties due to measurement ...
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero. See also
This t-statistic can be interpreted as "the number of standard errors away from the regression line." Regressions. In regression analysis, the distinction between errors and residuals is subtle and important, and leads to the concept of studentized residuals. Given an unobservable function that relates the independent variable to the dependent ...
Munitions may also have larger standard deviation of range errors than the standard deviation of azimuth (deflection) errors, resulting in an elliptical confidence region. Munition samples may not be exactly on target, that is, the mean vector will not be (0,0). This is referred to as bias.
This expression is valid only for positive values of x, but it can be used in conjunction with erfc x = 2 − erfc(−x) to obtain erfc(x) for negative values. This form is advantageous in that the range of integration is fixed and finite.