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It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume).. Effectively, this overcomes the 'infinite error' issue. Its formula is:
Since this is a biased estimate of the variance of the unobserved errors, the bias is removed by dividing the sum of the squared residuals by df = n − p − 1, instead of n, where df is the number of degrees of freedom (n minus the number of parameters (excluding the intercept) p being estimated - 1). This forms an unbiased estimate of the ...
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero. See also
Reliability theory shows that the variance of obtained scores is simply the sum of the variance of true scores plus the variance of errors of measurement. [7] This equation suggests that test scores vary as the result of two factors: 1. Variability in true scores. 2.
(200% for the first formula and 100% for the second formula). Provided the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained based on the log of the accuracy ratio: log( F t / A t ) This measure is easier to analyse statistically, and has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties.
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An "estimator" or "point estimate" is a statistic (that is, a function of the data) that is used to infer the value of an unknown parameter in a statistical model. A common way of phrasing it is "the estimator is the method selected to obtain an estimate of an unknown parameter". The parameter being estimated is sometimes called the estimand.
Statistical parameter. World population distribution. In statistics, as opposed to its general use in mathematics, a parameter is any quantity of a statistical population that summarizes or describes an aspect of the population, such as a mean or a standard deviation. If a population exactly follows a known and defined distribution, for example ...